Coffee Market Outlook 2026: What Buyers Should Expect on Price, Supply, and Risk

The coffee market in 2026 may feel calmer than the last two years, but it is not “back to normal.” Production is improving, yet global stocks remain low, which means prices can still move quickly on weather, logistics, or policy surprises. If you buy green coffee for roasting or supply B2B customers across the EU, 2026 is mainly a year to manage volatility well rather than trying to time the perfect bottom (USDA FAS 2025).

Quick summary for 2026 planning

• Global production is forecast to rise, but ending stocks are expected to keep falling (USDA FAS 2025).

• Brazil’s near-term arabica supply is tighter, but 2026/27 could rebound strongly if weather cooperates (USDA FAS 2025; Patterson and Geijer 2025).

• Forecasts point to moderation in 2026, but weather risk remains a core driver (Baffes and Temaj 2025).

• In the EU, EUDR timing and documentation readiness will increasingly affect who can ship and how smoothly (Council of the European Union 2025).

Global coffee supply is improving, but low stocks keep the market sensitive

USDA’s December 2025 outlook projects world production at 178.8 million 60-kg bags for 2025/26, while consumption is forecast at 173.9 million bags. That looks balanced at first glance. The more important number for volatility is inventories: ending stocks are projected to fall to about 20.1 million bags, continuing a multi-year decline (USDA FAS 2025).

Why this matters in 2026: when stocks are thin, the market reacts faster. A shipping delay, a weather scare in Brazil, or a shortfall in a major origin can trigger an outsized move because there is less buffer in the system (USDA FAS 2025).

Brazil and Vietnam still set the tone in 2026

Brazil: tighter arabica in the short term

USDA expects Brazil’s 2025/26 arabica output to fall to 38 million bags, with robusta rising to 25 million bags, and total Brazil output around 63 million bags (USDA FAS 2025).

For buyers, this often shows up in two ways:

• Arabica lots that meet stricter cup or contract specs can keep firm differentials even when the board softens.

• Robusta availability can support blend economics, but it does not remove quality-driven premiums (USDA FAS 2025; Patterson and Geijer 2025).

Brazil 2026/27: the big “if”

ING highlights strong recovery potential in Brazil’s next cycle, with early estimates suggesting arabica output could rise to roughly 47 million bags in 2026/27, supported by the biennial on-year and higher investment. Weather remains the deciding variable (Patterson and Geijer 2025).

This matters for procurement strategy. The market can price in recovery before it is fully visible in export flows. Waiting for perfect clarity often means missing workable windows on differentials, shipping, or coverage (Patterson and Geijer 2025).

Coffee price forecast 2026: moderation is likely, but risk stays priced in

A credible baseline for 2026 is “lower than recent extremes, still supported by risk.” The World Bank expects beverage prices to moderate in 2026 as supply expands, with a softer outlook for coffee while emphasizing that forecasts remain highly sensitive to Brazil weather and policy effects (Baffes and Temaj 2025).

ING’s view is consistent with a softer medium-term path, but it explains why the ride can be bumpy. When inventories are tight and the forward curve structure discourages stockholding, short-term moves can be amplified even if the longer-run outlook is easing (Patterson and Geijer 2025).

In plain terms: 2026 can be down on average while still producing sharp spikes.

EUDR in 2026: coffee compliance becomes a commercial requirement in the EU

For EU-focused operators, EUDR readiness is now part of supply security. The Council of the European Union confirms a targeted revision postponing application to 30 December 2026, with an additional cushion for micro and small operators, and coffee is explicitly listed among the covered commodities (Council of the European Union 2025).

In a market where coffee can move faster than a production schedule, the real value is not a “good price” on one day. It is knowing your next deliveries are secured, consistent, and on time. CaAmo Coffee is built for that reality. We do not treat green coffee as a one-off transaction. Clients remember us because we replace uncertainty with execution: clear specs, planned coverage, and proactive updates. We cannot control every disruption in global logistics, but we can control preparation, transparency, and how fast we solve problems when they happen.

Clients remember us for one simple reason: when others say “we will see,” we say “here is the plan,” and then we execute it.

 

Views are for procurement planning and market discussion only and are not investment advice; actual outcomes will depend on weather, supply, demand, and policy developments.

Sources:

Baffes, John, and Kaltrina Temaj. 2025. “Beverage Prices Moderate as Coffee and Cocoa Supply Recover.” World Bank Blogs (Open Data). December 2, 2025.

Council of the European Union. 2025. “Deforestation: Council Signs Off Targeted Revision to Simplify and Postpone the Regulation.” Consilium. December 18, 2025.

Patterson, Warren, and Thijs Geijer. 2025. “Brazil Crop Recovery to Push Coffee Prices Lower.” ING Think. December 8, 2025.

United States Department of Agriculture, Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS). 2025. Coffee: World Markets and Trade. December 2025.